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U.K. House Prices Could Decline as Much as 5% Next Year

Prime Central London is expected to fare better, Strutt & Parker predicts

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The U.K. housing market is set for a price correction next year.

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The U.K. housing market is set for a price correction next year.
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The U.K. housing market is set for a correction in 2023, with prices either remaining static or falling up to 5%, according to the latest forecast by property consultancy Strutt & Parker.

“We can expect negative pressure on house prices as the market responds to increased rates and living costs,” Matt Henderson, associate director of residential research at Strutt & Parker, said in the report. 

The slowdown will reverse the growth trajectory of the past 14 consecutive quarters. However, “the market is cushioned for marginal downward corrections” despite rising interest rates and inflation, according to the report released on Friday. In the third quarter, the number of sales and the average prices were still 11% and 28% higher respectively compared to the pre-Covid average. 

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Prime properties in central London, in particular, are expected to hold their values. Prices in this prime location could increase 3% in 2023 in the best scenario, or could fall 3%, according to Strutt & Parker.     

The property consultancy also revised its house price forecast for the remainder of this year. Across the U.K, house prices are now expected to increase between 5% and 8%, down from a previous forecast between 7% and 10%.

In prime central London, house prices are predicted to remain flat or grow 2% at the end of this year, instead of the previous forecast of between 2% and 5%.

In the end, the housing markets will follow the basic rules of supply and demand, said Kate Eales, head of regional agency at Strutt & Parker.

“We remain in a very supply constrained market, where even if buyer demand falls, it will still outweigh the number of available homes,” she said.

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